An analysis from geopolitics
COVID-19 has devastated international society. It is testing all its capabilities, from political, to economic and moral. A fight is underway, not only to reach the vaccine, but to achieve a position among the top positions on the international board. Faced with such a turbulent international panorama, in which the preeminent structure of recent decades is variable, the action of the current powers is directed towards demonstrating their power to stand above the rest. It is in these contexts where the most radical changes in societies occur; there are even doctrines and currents in this regard that affirm it. Although these twistsSometimes they are only for the benefit of a few.
In fact, one of the main axes affected by this fight is global inequality. The most developed countries use all the means at their disposal to obtain a vaccine, while the less developed or developing ones are forced to wait for the above set. So much so that, since World Health Organization, there is an attempt to lead a global response to COVID-19 through the COVAX Fund, which is intended to 64 high-income, self-financing economies join 92 lower-income economies eligible to receive financial support through the Gavi COVAX Advanced Market Commitment. In this way, once they are authorized and approved, an allocation framework published by this body will establish a fair and equitable distribution of access. We'll have to see it.
Now, to observe this international battle, it is necessary to know the current status of the vaccine and the places where it is developed, as well as starting from the basis that obtaining an effective medicine of this caliber is extremely complex. That is to say, the logical thing is to think that it takes years to be produced at an international level, although it seems, due to mere propaganda, that it is already about to be achieved.
According to Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker There are 55 vaccines distributed in different stages, which are characterized and differentiated by the degree of development and testing in population samples in which they are found. Currently, twenty-seven drugs are in phase 1, fourteen in phase 2, nine in the third and 5 in the limited approval, administered to limited uses of the population. China (with, currently, 3 vaccines in this phase) and Russia (with one, the controversial Sputnik V) have already entered this cycle, although they are being described, by members of the scientific community, as precocious and irresponsible in justifying their launch based on a growing rivalry to reach the merit of being awarded the first vaccine against the virus.
It is not difficult to imagine, then, that there are a considerable number of countries, throughout the world, in which attempts are being made to develop this drug and some are: Israel, India y Japan. But, in a first analysis, the real differences between the leaders of the race and the others are already reflected. Those from the East are the only ones with vaccines of limited use and, behind them, are Germany, Australia and the United States, the main antagonist of the Confucian on multiple levels and, in this sense, an ally of the interests of the European, which converge more with each other. than with the Chinese. On the other hand, it is not surprising that this second block finally includes AustraliaSo, the disagreements with the Asian giant by origin of COVID or because of its activity in the South China Sea mean that it does not intend to align itself with opacity and the threats of the Asian.
View: China attacks Australia and France for criticizing the new Hong Kong Lawg
China and Russia are leading the race and their intentions are not unknown, they want hit the international board and show that the rules of the game have changed. And In the case of Moscow, when, on August 11, it made it known that Sputnik V had been registered, the message was clear: In 1957, the Soviet Union (USSR) already won the race to conquer space with the satellite of the same name, and this time, it will not be different.
The sum of infections in these two States, taking into account the lack of transparency of their institutions, is lower to the more than six million that have been produced in the USA. Therefore, Asian companies, such as Sinovac (main competitor of Oxford University and AstraZeneca), have moved to countries such as Brazil or Canada to develop their vaccine due to "lack of domestic cases." Action that, it cannot be denied, hides a series of political and economic interests, such as the definitive implementation of China in South America, a key region for the New Silk Road and where it can be directly financing access to the drug in the region. However, the fact is that this has been due, in part, to the fact that they operate under quite different political rules; that is to say, Their respective leaders are free to do what they deem appropriate., they are not a democracy.
The West's response to this has been clear. They have pointed out that Russia and China have stolen information and suppressed part of the process, making it clear that the scientific career takes precedence over the health of its citizens. For their part, the US, Germany and Australia are acting as retaining wall to these initiatives to demonstrate that, In a democratic way, the social, health and economic needs of the population can be met; and they are taking the lead in the development of a safer medicine than previous ones, supported, in addition, by a large part of the international community and, specifically, by like-minded countries such as Israel, Italy, Japan and South Korea. Niaid-Moderna, Oxford University, AstraZeneca Pfizer or BioNTech are some of its companies and they are positioned with enough possibilities to achieve this. Well, in addition, they collaborate with each other.
This bloc, led, of course, by the US, has dedicated more than 5.000 billion dollars to cause manufacturers and pharmaceutical companies to produce more vaccines in their territory than in any other (Operation Warp Speed), thus competing with the list of business groups that the Chinese government has to invest and reach agreements of the same nature. And it is not surprising. This tool to end the new pandemic will become a currency at a geopolitical level (at the same level, or even higher, than oil production, for example). Therefore, the alliances in this sense are quite defined and will mark the tensions of the current international scenario, with precedents in the Cold War.
And an example of this is the initiative of North American President Donald Trump to obtain more than 2021 million doses of effective vaccines in January 300 through agreements of pre purchase, for those who have paid more than 1.600 billion dollars to the company Novavax: The first country in the world with a vaccine will be the US. Even the head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Stephen Hahn, may end up approving emergency use of the vaccine before clinical trials are completed. However, this decision could seem, beforehand, a response to the, now also, candidate for the presidential elections, who accused this organization at the end of August of intentionally delaying the use of it until after November 3, the date on which the elections will be held. elecciones presidenciales.
If carried out, this country will become the third to apply the controversial measure, although the connotations it would bring would not be favorable at all. If the Western bloc is supposed to be prioritizing security, of following in the footsteps of the oriental is breaking with this key differentiating factor. The community of experts in this regard has already put on the table the possibility that this work, in the end, will not be effective, in addition to unsafe for health. Therefore, it would lack credibility for the population, limiting the number of people who would allow themselves to be injected. It would seem, as in Russia, that we have returned to the times of the Iron Curtain and that the North American accepts the term.
The race to acquire the first effective vaccine against COVID-19 is becoming a battle that goes beyond health issues, led by two clearly defined blocks of States with quite opposing interests. Politics, economics, strategy and security are some of the variables that give character to the conflict, which is included in a key concept, geopolitics. Through which States seek to claim their influence over the rest, and through which Westerners, perhaps, are playing state nationalism, as a great effort not to allow themselves to be expelled from the international scene. He pivot to Asia, the phenomenon that is based on a paradigm shift on the international scene that is displacing the center of international hegemony to the West to make way for the Asian continent, it is predictable. And the consequences of a greater preeminence of Eastern values and a different culture for understanding the world would be extremely complex. Neither positive nor negative.
Analysis prepared jointly by Miguel Melian and Mar Gámez
LL.M in International Business Law and Law from ISDE and graduated in Law and International Relations from Loyola University. CEO and business internationalization consultant at Reáculoateypunto.
