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Why are China and India fighting over the Indian Ocean?

Asia has risen as one of the epicenters of global power. Despite being accustomed to a world dictated by Europe and the United States, the incredible Asian growth has questioned this paradigm, producing as a consequence the political rise of new great powers that compete among themselves to be the leaders of this emerging continent, among them they, China and India.

The keys to Asian geopolitics

Asia has become the center of world trade, accounting for more than 30% of global exports. The Asian continent has two thirds of the world's foreign exchange reserves.

Six of the world's 10 largest reserves are in Asia: China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India and Hong Kong. China alone had more than $4 trillion at the end of 2014 (a figure equivalent to Germany's GDP). ).

In technological terms, Chinese investment in R&D has grown an average of 20% annually since 1999: currently represents 20% of global R&D spending (more than Japan, Germany and South Korea combined).

In 2018, it surpassed the United States in the total number of scientific publications.

In Fortune magazine's Global 500 ranking of the world's largest companies by revenue in 2004, 40% were in North America, followed by Western Europe. Today, Asia has more companies in the ranking than North America and Europe combined: China alone has 95 companies.

This economic growth is accompanied by a growth in its geopolitical relevance, whose consequences are strategic and whose implications are highly complex.

Asia faces all kinds of security challenges: Korea, Taiwan, Kashmir, Afghanistan, maritime tensions, unconventional threats (such as terrorism, environmental disasters or pandemics), territorial disputes, among others.

It may be precisely for this reason that Asia is home to 7 of the world's 10 largest armies, as well as 5 nuclear powers: China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Russia., being the only region in the world in which military spending has increased steadily since 1988.

At the same time, it is a profoundly heterogeneous continent in all possible terms: geography, economy, demography, society, culture, religion and diplomacy.

It is in Asia where the main powers of the world today look for allies, find adversaries and play a good part of the “chess” of world geopolitics.

In particular, we must take into account, for the case at hand, the idiosyncrasies of the region now commonly called Indo-Pacific.

We must consider that, in geopolitical literature, traditional geographical terms such as “Asia”, “America”, “Pacific Ocean” or “Africa” are often ignored, being replaced by other geographical designations for regions that maintain a certain unity in terms. political, social, cultural or simply convenient for use in geopolitics (expressions such as “MENA Region”, “Sub-Saharan Africa”, “Latin America and the Caribbean”, etc.). 

It is this that led to the creation of the term Asia-Pacific, used to describe the area shared by Asian states with a Pacific coast, as well as those that are part of the oceanic continent, such as Australia and New Zealand.

This term, since the Trump administration, is increasingly out of use, being replaced by the “Indo-Pacific”, which also includes Asian countries with a coast on the Indian Ocean (with the aim of introducing India as a counterweight to China and US partner).

The term Indo-Pacific leads us to appreciate a territorial continuity between the Pacific and Indian oceans with norms, relationships and structures shared by the states present in this region; it is through the Indo-Pacific that we can explain this rivalry.

Even if certain key points of the Sino-Indian rivalry only play out in the Indian Ocean, as we will see, they cannot be separated from the geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Pacific as a whole. 

China-India rivalry

The historical rivalry between China and India, two of the world's oldest and greatest civilizations, has been marked by a complex interplay of territorial conflicts, economic competition and geopolitical tensions.

Over the past 20 years, this rivalry has experienced renewed vigor, especially in the context of the economic and military rise of both nations, as well as amid significant changes in regional and international power dynamics.

First of all, we must mention the territorial disputes furthest from the Indian Ocean.

Territorial conflict in areas like Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh has led to several military clashes over the decades, including the 1962 border conflict, which still remain unresolved and where incidents such as the Doklam clash in 2017, where Indian and Chinese forces clashed for more than two months, are still common.

To understand the nature of the rivalry between China and India in the Indian Ocean, it is crucial to go back to its recent history and geopolitical context.

Both nations are emerging powers with vast strategic interests in the region. India, with its privileged geographical location and maritime heritage, considers the Indian Ocean as an integral part of its sphere of influence. On the other hand, China, in its quest to secure vital trade routes and energy resources, has expanded its presence in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Road Initiative"), also known as the "New Silk Road", introduced in 2013.

The BRI is one of China's key geopolitical projects, which aims to use large economic investments in transportation, energy and communications infrastructure to promote connectivity and cooperation between Asia, Europe and Africa, fostering greater economic and trade connection of these countries. with the Chinese economy, strengthening the position of the Asian superpower as a center of the world economy and trade, Chinese political influence over the countries that receive investments and promoting their financial dependence on China.

The initiative includes both land routes (the Strip) and maritime routes (the Maritime Silk Road). Land routes connect China with Europe via Central Asia and the Middle East, while sea routes span the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

In the context of this Maritime Silk Road, China has expanded its naval presence in the Indian Ocean in recent years, establishing military bases in countries such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and deploying its fleet to protect its vital trade and energy routes in an area that India considers its main zone of influence.

This is the clash point that motivates the competition between China and India in the Pacific:

The new Chinese Silk Road has involved enormous investments in infrastructure construction in the Indian area of ​​influence, where Indian foreign policy has traditionally been focused on supporting the development projects of its neighbors, understanding that this development helps counteract the political and economic instability that can permeate its borders. This competition for influence has worried New Delhi, which considers it key to counter Chinese influence around it in order to guarantee its national security.

Competition in the Indo-Pacific

Having provided a regional context and established the trends that we can observe in the region, it is pertinent to observe how both countries have developed their foreign policy in the context of this rivalry.

The Indian Ocean is a key point for Chinese economic security: nine of the ten main trade routes that supply China with crude oil pass through the Indian Ocean, as well as being a key area for the new maritime silk road.

In 2017, China opened its first overseas military base, in Djibouti, a key point connecting the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea, and over the last decade, it has extended its network of embassies to the all island states in the region.

Chinese infrastructure construction is focusing on ports that ensure the survival of adjacent sea routes. China has financed and actively participated in the construction of the ports of Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Sittwe (Myanmar) and Chittagong (Bangladesh) all of them in neighboring states of India, in addition to a whole series of investments in more distant countries with coasts in the Indian Ocean.

Chinese intervention is not reduced to economic investment, as we can see in the case of the Maldives Islands (less than 500km from the Indian coast), where China offers free military assistance to the Malé government under the new defense and cooperation agreement. He has supported political leaders opposed to Indian influence, such as Abdulla Yameen or Mohamed Muizzu.

A very similar case is that of Sri Lanka, where we were already talking about a large Chinese investment for the construction of a port, where China used its influence to support anti-Indian leaders, such as the Rajapaksas.

New Delhi is aware of this situation and is concerned about Beijing's growing influence in its surroundings, which has motivated it to consider new initiatives that strengthen its leadership in the region. 

India's Ministry of External Affairs established a new division, the Indian Ocean Division, in 2016 to look at the region more holistically and as a single theatre, primarily across island nations. However, at the time of establishing the division, Madagascar and Comoros were not included.

The MEA later revised its policy and placed the two islands in the division in 2019, reflecting its widening and strengthening reach of the Indian Ocean.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2015 visited three of the six Indian Ocean islands: Sri Lanka, Mauritius and Seychelles, (first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 28 years) signaling renewed interest and repeating these visits with frequency.

In an effort to emphasize the importance of its neighborhood in India's foreign policy and underline Delhi's commitment to regional security, prioritizing relations with its immediate neighbors, which includes Sri Lanka and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean.

Strengthening its capability efforts in the region, India has established coastal radar systems and stations in collaboration with Maldives, Mauritius, Sri Lanka and Seychelles. India has also offered similar assistance to Myanmar and Bangladesh for better maritime domain awareness.

India also seeks to maximize its maritime partnerships in the region through collaborations by creating platforms and initiatives to address major challenges in the region.

The Indian Ocean region frequently faces severe natural disasters, with many island nations identifying climate change as the main security challenge. Delhi has participated in various initiatives related to the fight against climate change and prevention of natural disasters.

As a counterweight to the BRI, India has proposed different smaller international initiatives, but none have fully materialized and they have not achieved relevant results.

The first is a cultural initiative, presented to UNESCO in 2014, called “Project Mausam”, consisting, at a macro level, of reconnecting and reestablishing communications between the countries of the Indian Ocean region, which would lead to a better understanding of the cultural values ​​and concerns; while at the micro level, the focus is on understanding national cultures in their regional maritime environment. India aims to foster a cultural connection that, in turn, fosters political and diplomatic ties. The second initiative is the “Cotton Route”, directly aimed at presenting a counterweight to growing Chinese maritime ambitions through infrastructure investment, much like the BRI.

Finally, we must talk about the USA.

As the rivalry between China and India in the Indian Ocean continues to evolve, The United States emerges as a key player on the scene.

With its strategic interest in maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific region by countering Chinese influence, the United States has strengthened its ties with India and other Indian Ocean nations, considering it an essential region for its increasing engagement in the Asian continent.

The growing US military presence, along with its commitment to freedom of navigation (Japan and the US are united in their demand for a free and open Indo-Pacific) and the maintenance of maritime order, adds an additional dimension to the geopolitical dynamics. in the Indian Ocean, which could significantly influence the balance of power in the region for years to come.

However, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea continue to be the main concerns of the US on the continent, so it seems that it will be India that will have the responsibility of counteracting Chinese influence on its own.

Why are China and India fighting over the Indian Ocean? An uncertain future

In conclusion, the rivalry between China and India in the Indian Ocean is marked by a complex interaction of economic, strategic and geopolitical interests.

Both nations, as emerging powers, have intensified their efforts to secure their influence in the region, leading to increasingly heated competition.

China, through its ambitious New Silk Road initiative, has expanded its naval and economic presence in the Indian Ocean, challenging India's traditional sphere of influence.

In response, India has sought to strengthen its ties with neighboring Indian Ocean countries, establishing regional cooperation and security initiatives.

This competition scenario is not exempt from the influence of external actors, with the United States being a key protagonist seeking to counteract the growing Chinese influence in the region.

With its strategic interest in maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific, the United States has strengthened its ties with India and other Indian Ocean nations, adding an additional dimension to the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

Ultimately, the balance of power in the Indian Ocean will remain contested for years to come, with significant implications for security and stability in the region and beyond.

The rivalry between China and India in the Indian Ocean not only reflects their regional ambitions, but also illustrates the complexity of geopolitical dynamics on the contemporary world stage.


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