Blockade of Qatar

The blockade situation that the emirate of Qatar suffered from 2017 until weeks ago, 2021, began due to, among many other reasons, the coverage carried out by its public television Al Jazeera (“al-jazyrah” in Arabic) of the political and media phenomenon that the Arab Springs represented in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria since 2011. This showed the world the underground confrontation that they kept Saudi Arabia and Qatar (to obtain the leadership of the Sunni countries) to control or promote, respectively, these revolutions, in which there was a change of government or long and bloody armed conflicts. 

All these political liberation processes experienced in the Arab world are a direct consequence of the pressure exerted by Riyadh and Doha. Both the Middle East and North Africa ceased to be territories of main influence of Western states (European and North American) and other actors emerged, with greater cultural and religious proximity and economic support, who began to exert a powerful influence in the region. . These actors, however, maintained a great difference in vision of the region, which affected the effectiveness of their policies in all these territories.

What happened to the Arab Springs

On June 5, 2017, a number of Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Yemen; and later Mauritania and Libya), under Saudi leadership, ordered a blockade against Qatar, denouncing that the emirate financed and supported terrorist organizations throughout the region; trying to destabilize the entire Middle East and seeking to align itself with the organization's greatest enemy: Iran. This blockade of air routes and land borders (the Qatari kingdom is a peninsula) also meant the expulsion of the anti-terrorist coalition in the war in Yemen and the request for acceptance of 13 conditions that have not only still been accepted today. , but they have produced the opposite effects to those expected.

This action of siege on the small emirate occurred for several reasons, the first was the information revealed by the “hacking” to Qatari news agencies (including its own Al Jazeera), which showed a video showing the previous emir, Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani, giving a speech at the country's military academy about the good relationship with Iran, the link with extremist (and terrorist) organizations, and the deal with the Trump Administration. The recording was uploaded to the website of the Saudi channel Al-Arabiya although it was later deleted. 

The second was the numerous disagreements between several Arab nations with the Al-Thani kingdom:

• Saudi Arabia; Ultimately, what underlies this entire confrontation is that the Saudi regime holds the predominant position of the Sunni current throughout the Middle East, and Qatar seeks to become a relevant actor for the rest of the believers of this branch of Islam, such as rest of the countries in this region, forever modifying the dispute that extends through the Middle East, between two factions: the Sunni (led by the Saudis) and the Shiite (led by the Iranians).
• Bahrain; bases its support for this action due to suspicion of the use of the Qatari channel for the benefit of the emirate itself and the (alleged) “hacking” of the social networks of its foreign minister, Khalid bin Ahmed Al Kalifa.
• Egypt; The most populated nation in the Arab world has been one of the most determined when it comes to carrying out this commercial blockade, it accuses it of supporting and being behind the massive citizen demonstrations that shook the country and overthrew the dictator Hosni Mubarak who had been in power for 3 decades. power (he was sentenced to life imprisonment for corruption and the death of protesters, however, on March 24, 2017 he was released when the cases against him were dismissed).
• United Arab Emirates; They totally opposed the demands for greater democracy and increased civil rights brought about by the Arab Springs, Islamist organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the public media of other countries, and they blamed the authorities in Doha for all this.
• Yemen; the support of the Qatari authorities (and the chain they control) for the country's Arab Spring that has caused a war between 3 sides: the supporters of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthi opposition movement, and the forces of the former vice president , Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

The third motive was the support of the Qatari authorities for the Muslim Brotherhood organization in Egypt, specifically for the country's president between June 30, 2012 and July 3, 2013, Mohammed Morsi, especially after the coup d'état. military man who deposed him (bringing General Al-Sisi to power). He was later convicted by the Egyptian Court of Cassation, which sentenced him to 25 years in prison for revealing and delivering official and secret State Security documents to Qatari authorities. Besides, Al Jazeera He continued to support the religious organization even after this overthrow, not only in Egypt, but also in adjacent countries such as Libya and Jordan (through Hamas).

The fourth of the pretexts was complicity with Al Qaeda and DAESH, which has not been demonstrated by the promoters, only a list of mercenaries, entities and associations was provided that, supposedly from the Qatari peninsula, provided support and financing to the militias in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria; However, they did not detail the reason that led to this, the “modus operandi”, the links with the authorities, or the origin of the economic funds that would come from that part of the Gulf.

As a fifth argument, it was the lack of military involvement in Yemen against the supporters of former president Abdallah Saleh; although this accusation is not really true, since until 2017, the media and the authorities of the emirate supported the measures decided in the Arab Coalition.

Finally, the sixth reason is the fact that in all these tense situations that make up the previous reasons, the main means of communication in the country, Al Jazeera, has thoroughly and continuously reported on each and every one of them, whether through showing the various atrocities and actions of the different terrorist organizations in the Middle East, the progress of the struggle of Arab citizens throughout the region for their rights , the promotion of an Islamist political organization (considered radical) such as the Muslim Brotherhood (who tried to take advantage of this wave of openness to transmit a message about a more political Islam, respecting other religions and participation in the democratic parliamentary system), as well as of the improvement of relations between his country and the power on the other side of the Gulf. 

Among these 6 arguments, the most important is the one that refers to the implications of Doha-based television, which provokes suspicions about whether The main problems between the powers of the 2 Arab regions are due to the division of opinions on the freedom of information (or not) that the citizens of all those countries have.. This right could imply the need for citizens to make legal and political decisions to carry out greater openness in the main authoritarian regimes throughout the Arabian Peninsula.

The importance of what has happened in Qatar these 4 years is notable. It has caused a very significant change throughout the region, the consequences of which, among others, were: 

• The schism between Sunni countries, this political conflict represents a division between these Middle Eastern nations, especially among those in the Gulf, since they do not want the current situation to change (Saudi Arabia as the spiritual leader of the Sunni current).
• The US “tightwalking” between Saudi Arabia and Qatar; The US Government is in a complicated position as the Saud dynasty is its main buyer of weapons in the region, while the Al-Thani dynasty houses the largest US military base in the entire Middle East. (Al Udeid) and the second largest in the entire area, with a force of 8.000 soldiers and an Air Operations Center). Therefore, despite support for the embargo, The North American Administration does not want the situation to continue in an escalation of tensions and lead to a military conflict (may it last forever following the disastrous examples of the wars and invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan).
• The rapprochement with Iran; With these tensions, the countries promoting this initiative obtained the opposite result of what they expected. The Iranian theocracy became Qatar's main ally, after Turkey, so, paradoxically, the bond between both countries has been strengthened, politically, economically and militarily. The Tehran authorities have used this situation to their advantage to: reinforce their influence over the Qatari country, strengthen ties with Turkey, obtain even greater leadership in the region and a more advantageous and powerful position in the various conflicts ravaging the Middle East (in which it has an extremely relevant role).
• The diversification of the Qatari economy; The shortage caused the need to carry out large projects to develop the country's productivity, main infrastructure and telecommunications, which has led to a series of economic improvements: GDP growth of 3% (in 2017 it was 2,5%) the increase in the price of hydrocarbons and construction. Despite the flight of capital worth 30.000 billion dollars, the government neutralized its impact with the 136.000 billion Qatari rials (35.000 billion euros) of profit last year, the development of tourism and the power of Qatar Airways. Through the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) the assets obtained from the exploitation of the largest natural gas reserve in the world, the “north sea”; For this reason, it has invested 5 billion in acquiring a multitude of properties in the City (of London), 15% of the shares of the English capital's stock market (London Stock Exchange) or the 100% of the capital of the French football club Paris Saint Germain (in which from its purchase in 2012 to 2018 it invested one billion euros).
• The loss of relevance of the European Union, especially in its role as an international conflict mediator; because it tries to maintain an equidistant position between both sides, and offered to help (and advise) the Kuwaiti government as an arbiter of that dispute, highlighting that unilateral impositions are not the appropriate measures to find a solution, although with two exceptions: Germany, which is Qatar's main European client (since the QIA is present in the shareholders of Volkswagen, Deutsche Bank and Siemens), and France, which closed a million-dollar sale of weapons, which is why it showed his explicit support for the emirate.

In this very complex, convoluted and interconnected scenario, if we start from a western perspective It is also necessary to pay attention to the intervention, indirectly, of other major international actors in the region such as Turkey and Iran.

In the case of the Ankara regime, this crisis has produced a rapprochement with the emirate for 3 central reasons: the religious, political and social influence of the Muslim Brotherhood; the numerous Qatari investments during the successive presidencies of Recep Tayyip Erdogan (and the participation of Turkish companies in the construction of infrastructure in the emirate) and military protection, the Turkish army has a base on Qatari soil and carries out joint weapons and maneuver programs. 

In the case of Iran, the Kuwaiti emirate was chosen to mediate, taking advantage of the fact that, firstly, it has good relations with the main actors in this crisis (Saudi Arabia, the USA and Qatar); secondly, that it is the "most open" system in the entire Arabian Peninsula; and, lastly, that it aims to have its own space on the international scene (on the political and economic levels). 

For all this, the traditional map of alliances and support in the Middle East was substantially modified: 

These changes brought about some immediate effects:

• The instability of the Gulf carried over to the Gaza Strip; since the Palestinian population depends largely on Doha, which is one of the largest donors, although it also provides financial support to extremist groups (with a military branch) such as Hamas (since this organization is part of the Muslim Brotherhood), which since 2012 has had the headquarters of its political office in Qatar.
• There was a major weakening of activity, participation and mutual trust within the GCC; although bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were strengthened^[9].
• Libya was, and still is, another focus of discussion between the two opposing sectors in the blockade conflict; in Tripoli, Qatar and Turkey they support a group related to the Muslim Brotherhood, while in Tobruk, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates they act as support for General Haftar's forces. One effect of the blockade was the reduction of Qatari financing, so there was a temporary victory for Abu Dhabi (which with this saw its relationship with the Riyadh regime reinforced).
• The war in Syria was another scenario that was seriously influenced; since the Qatari regime (along with the Saudi regime) was one of the main promoters of the groups opposing Al-Assad, and American military operations were questioned for months.

This is how the situation continued until September 15, 2020, when, from the Trump Administration, with his son-in-law Jared Kushner at the helm, the negotiations between Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates ended, and this was reflected in a series of well-known documents. as "The Abraham Accords”. The explanation why these two Arab nations have been the first to recognize Israel is because neither has participated in a direct war against this country.

Faced with this new change in the context of the Middle East, the rapprochement between several Sunni nations and the Jewish State to form a common front against Iran, rapprochements between the members of the Gulf Council countries have also begun. In the coming months we will see if everything returns to normal or Qatar continues with a neutral position between the two main leaders of the Arab world (while trying to consolidate, together with Turkey, a third way based on political vision of Islam of the Muslim Brotherhood).  

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