Withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan

After 20 years of continuous presence in the Asian country, the United States will withdraw one hundred percent of its troops by September 2021. Its NATO allies will do the same. If things have not been easy in Afghanistan for 40 years, the future does not seem to be different. With the imminent arrival of the Taliban to power, uncertainties are increasing. Human Rights are among the main concerns of the international community, as is the strengthening of jihadism at the international level. The next few months are very important for the Afghan people.

Future scenarios for the country

Afghan society has not known peace since 1979, when the Soviet invasion began. Then, internal confrontations. From 1994 to 2001, the actions of the Taliban and their rise to power. And from September 2001 until today, the presence of the United States and its NATO allies.

The military solution has not been satisfactory in Afghanistan. The Soviets couldn't and neither could the Americans. Although the former president George W. Bush Even if the United States and NATO were to indicate otherwise, history may not prove them right. While it is true that the United States and NATO have undisputed superior military power over the Taliban, this has not served to defeat them; the foreign military presence in these 20 years has only served to keep them "at bay." The question is, until when will military, financial and human resources be allocated to a conflict that never seems to end? A question that was already being asked by the Obama Administration, that was operationalized in the last year of the Trump Administration, and that the Biden Administration will make concrete.

The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan had put the international community on alert. Without major problems, the Taliban could gain ground and increasingly dominate the entire country. It will only be a matter of time, since the Taliban are controlling territories at a fairly rapid pace, also taking over some border crossings.

Possibilities

What happens after September 11 is not exactly clear. One could imagine that something similar to what happened between 1994/1996 to 2001 would happen. Or maybe not. In any case, it is highly likely that the clashes between the Afghan army and the Taliban will continue, but without knowing for how long.

However, there are some issues that will inevitably have to be resolved. The important thing is to be able to know what the Taliban want from the new situation. There are many possible scenarios, but I think there are three issues that will be present in any of them. The first is to know what the Taliban's political project is after the total withdrawal. Second, what would be the human rights situation in the event of a possible Taliban government. And third, the position towards democracy, state institutions and the Afghan national army.

The Taliban political project after the withdrawal

Technically, the Afghan state should be the repository of power; However, although it may have the power to iure, doesn't have it de facto. The “ideal” project would be for Afghanistan to become a democracy as it was before 1979, and the Taliban as just another political party. This would be the wish of the West, but it does not seem that it will come true. The Taliban have not yet clearly defined their political project, but perhaps it is too premature to talk about democracy (if we are going to talk about it). Even the rounds of negotiations in Doha between the Afghan government and the Taliban have not put an end to nothing clear

The Taliban have expressed their intention to bring peace to the country after 40 years, but under conditions with the government for which there is still no consensus. The first thing that must be defined is what the role of the Taliban would be in Afghan political life. What kind of actor would they be, what would they do and what would they not do. All this should be clarified in the negotiations, which will not be easy or short.

Three questions to resolve

En First: The Taliban, what do they want geopolitically speaking? Would your political project be framed within the current borders of Afghan territory or do you intend to expand? This question is key for negotiations, it could expand or reduce the size of the win-set (in game theory, the set of possible agreements to be consummated).

En second place: what would happen if in the Taliban regime there are violations of the human rights? If the situation of women worsens? There are those who fear this. And feminist and human rights groups are worried. And they probably exist, because the Taliban are going to impose Sharia (something they are not willing to negotiate). Part of the negotiations should address the issue. If there were human rights violations, could the international community act? Would the Taliban commit to this?

And in third place: What and what would the Taliban political project be like? Would they adopt democracy as a form of government? It seems unlikely that this will happen, but they should clarify what they will do. One option could be to resort to Loya Jirga, although perhaps with a more complex operation (to be able to take care of everything that the administration of a State implies). The Taliban claim not to want to monopolize power, but they insist that there will be no peace in Afghanistan until there is a new negotiated government in Kabul and the president, Ashraf Ghani, leaves office (Gannon, 2021). On the other hand, what would they do with the economy? Afghanistan is the main producer of opium, but its trade is controversial. The country also does not have industries. It has some investments from China, but in regions whose security was guaranteed by the Afghan army. Now, China might start to worry about its investments there.

Some possible answers

After the withdrawal is definitively completed, the Afghan army will not be able to hold out much longer. Although it will have foreign economic aid, the military factor is what is needed first. After the next September 11, 2021, there will only be 1000 soldiers left Americans to guard the Kabul international airport and some embassies; but they would be there for an indefinite period of time. Therefore, the Taliban could control the country in its entirety in the coming months.

One country that should follow the situation closely is China. Although its border with Afghanistan is 76 kilometers, it directly borders the province of Xinjiang. It is home to the Uyghurs, a Muslim minority that is presumed to have been punished and repressed by the Chinese regime for decades. China fears that, under the influence of the Taliban, Chinese Muslims destabilize the region. Personally, I don't think this will happen, as the Taliban would not want to have problems with China, are not interested in expanding their religion, and would have enough domestic challenges to face without diverting time and resources into something that would only cool relations with China.

In my opinion, the Taliban do not want to expand territorially. They just want to live in their territory, but in their own way. This would imply unacceptable conditions for Western societies: from non-democracy to the vulnerability of women and children. And this would precisely be an issue in the negotiations. Western countries would have two options: either they do not reach an agreement because they consider the issue of human rights undisputable, or they leave Afghan society to its fate. It is politically incorrect to do the latter. There is also the option of intervening if there are human rights violations, but that would be going over the same thing. About what you want to avoid. A United Nations peace mission could be useful, but it would not solve the conflict.

Regarding the political organization of the Taliban regime, I think it is too early to draw conclusions. The negotiations are still stalled, and we do not know how the already weakened Afghan State. Agreements may or may not be reached, but that remains to be seen.

What is clear is that the next step to follow (for all parties involved) is any option but the military route. Both the Soviet Union and the United States made the mistake of thinking that by eliminating strategic objectives of the Mujahideen/Taliban, they were going to defeat them. One of the reasons Al-Qaeda has endured for so long (and we could say its ideology as well, to this day) is because it is not based on the cult of a leader. It is based on religion, on the Koran and this never changes. Bin Laden was only an organizer of the movement, as well as others who followed him. So much so, that the ideology of Al-Qaeda is present in groups outside the Middle East, such as Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. In Afghanistan, it is not enough to kill men, you have to kill religion, ideas. And that is impossible.